Climate Vulnerability and Disaster Governance in Pakistan: The 2022 Monsoon Floods and the Evolution of Flood Management (2022–2026)

Abstract

In spite of its below one percent global GHG emissions, Pakistan is extremely vulnerable to climate hazards. Of these risks, extreme monsoon rainfall and flooding pose a significant threat to human life, agriculture, infrastructure, livelihoods and economic stability. Monsoon floods in 2022 were one of the most devastating floods in the recent history of the country, affecting over 33 million people and resulting in more than US$30 billion in damages and losses across the country. This article takes the 2022 floods as a case study of the relationship between climate risk and disaster governance in Pakistan and continues the analysis until 2026 to see what happens next in terms of preparedness and flood management. The study employs a qualitative case study approach and document analysis, utilising rainfall data from Pakistan Meteorological Department, National Disaster Management Authority plans, PDNA, government policy documents and peer-reviewed literature on climate adaptation and disaster risk. Additionally, PMD reported that in 2022 the country received 175 percent more than the normal monsoon rains, while Sindh and Balochistan received 426 percent and 450 percent of their normal monsoon rains, respectively (Pakistan Meteorological Department [PMD], 2022). Given the extent of the disaster, the study suggests that the disaster was the product of an interaction between extreme climatic events, social, infrastructural, and institutional vulnerabilities. It also explores if the reforms and preparedness measures put in place since 2022 have enhanced Pakistan's capacity to respond to the risks of the future monsoon. By 2026, the article identifies that mechanisms to provide early warnings, take anticipatory actions, coordinate between agencies, and plan for disaster have become more explicit, in Pakistan. But ongoing implementation gaps, vulnerability of infrastructure, risk-informed planning, and institutional capacity remain a constraint to the effectiveness of these measures. The research finds that to achieve climate resilience, a response to the crisis is not enough. It relies on translating meteorological warnings to the right action, incorporating DR into development planning, and building institutional capacity between disasters.